The Climate Applications Lab at UC Merced is headed by Dr. Anthony L. Westerling. The main focus of their research is wildfire-vegetation-climate interactions, wildfire modeling, wildfire forecasting, impacts of climate change in wildfire and air quality, impacts of wildfire on the carbon budget and policy implications on regional to global scales.
These data model the ratio of additional fire risk for an area as compared to the expected burned area for each grid cell. The ratio of additional risk was calculated for 30 year averaged periods ending 2020, 2050, and 2085, for four models (CCSM3, GFDL, PCM1, CNRM) and two scenarios (A2, B1). More detailed information about these data can be found in: Westerling, A. L., Bryant, B. P., 2008. Climate Change and Wildfire in California. Climatic Change (2008) 87 (Suppl 1): s231-s249
All of the data used in this visualization are presented unedited, except for the "all" models layers which include an average of all four models for each grid cell.
Zoom to the full extent of California
Change the opacity of the overlay
Using the Area Selection Type Menu to the left, edit types of selection areas:
Select various chart options in the dropdown menus to the right, which can include Month, Model, and Temperature ranges (High, Low, or Average).
Note: The first set of chart options control the variables being viewed on the map.
Click "Add Chart" to create an additional chart to compare with. After creating the new chart, click on a new area of the map to view a chart for the same options in another location. Or change an option in the dropdown menu to view the chart for the same location, with different settings.
To edit the first chart again, either directly edit the dropdown menus, or click on the Location Name and then click on a new location on the map.
Click "Predefined boundaries" in the Area Selection Type Menu to the left before clicking on an area of the map, if you'd like to compare counties to one another.
Fix the locations of the graphs to one area by clicking this toggle.
Fire is an important ecosystem disturbance. It promotes vegetation and wildlife diversity, releases nutrients into the soil, and eliminates heavy accumulation of underbrush that can fuel catastrophic fires.
The area projected to be burnt by wildfire toward the end of the century will increase substantially, especially in mountainous areas.
The data in this climate tool display the projected increase in potential area burned given three different climate models and two different scenarios. Darker oranges and reds suggest up to a 10-fold increase in potential area burned.
Please note that these data are modeled solely on climate projections and do not take landscape and fuel sources into account. New fire risk projections are currently being produced that take more landscape information into account.
Use the slider bar to the left to visualize the projected increase inarea burned, as seen in the low and higher emissions scenarios. Adjust the options below to view different models.
Create a chart by clicking a location on the map and altering one of the dropdown option boxes.
Create a chart by clicking a location on the map and altering one of the dropdown option boxes.
The data presented in this tool represent a projection of potential future climate scenarios, they are not predictions. These data are meant to illustrate how the climate may change based on a variety of different potential social and economic factors. The default visualizations in this tool are comprised of the average values from a variety of scenarios and models. Find out more about climate change data.
This information is being made available for informational purposes only. Users of this information agree by their use to hold blameless the State of California, and its respective officers, employees, agents, contractors, and subcontractors for any liability associated with its use in any form.
This work shall not be used to assess actual coastal hazards, insurance requirements, or property values and specifically shall not be used in lieu of Flood Insurance Studies and Flood Insurance Rate Maps issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Data Set Contributed: Fire Risk Data
These data model the ratio of additional fire risk for an area as compared to the expected burned area for each grid cell. The ratio of additional risk was calculated for 30 year averaged periods ending 2020, 2050, and 2085, for four models (CCSM3, GFDL, PCM1, CNRM) and two scenarios (A2, B1). More detailed information about these data can be found in: Westerling, A. L., Bryant, B. P., 2008. Climate Change and Wildfire in California. Climatic Change (2008) 87 (Suppl 1): s231-s249
2011 April 12
As climate changes, it appears that summer dryness will begin earlier, last longer and become more intense. These changes may exacerbate fire occurrences, which have historically peaked in late summer and early fall. If temperatures rise into the medium warming range, the risk of large wildfires in California could increase by as much as 55 percent, which is almost twice the increase expected if temperatures stay in the lower warming range.
