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Browse publications gathered by the California Energy Commission that focus on climate change issues relevant to the State of California. Find both PIER research papers as well as relevant articles published in peer reviewed journals.

Publications Published in 2014


  1. California Getting Wetter to the North, Drier to the South: Natural Variability or Climate Change?. Dan Killam, Ann Bui, Steve LaDochy, Pedro Ramirez, Joshua Willis .
    Climate: 2014
    DOI: 10.3390/cli2030168

  2. California’s Central Valley sees big drop in wintertime fog needed for fruit and nut crops. Dennis Baldocchi and Eric Waller.
    American Geophysical Union 1: 2014
    http://news.agu.org/press-release/californias-central-valley-sees-big-drop-in-wintertime-fog-needed-for-fruit-and-nut-crops/

  3. California’s Climate Change Solution . Edie Chang and Steven Cliff.
    : 2014

  4. California’s Comprehensive Approach toClimate Change: The Pivotal Role of research. Guido Franco, Louise Bedsworth, and Amber Pairis.
    Air & Waste Management Association : 2014

  5. Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous. .
    International Journal of Wildland Fire: 2014
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13169
    Notes
    <p><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"> <p>Very large wildfires can cause significant economic and environmental damage, including destruction of</p> <p>homes, adverse air quality, firefighting costs and even loss of life.We examine how climate is associated with very large</p> <span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"> <p>wildland fires (VLWFs</p> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: AdvMPi-One; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvMPi-One; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvMPi-One; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;">$</span></span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;">50 000 acres, or </span></span></span><span style="font-family: AdvMPi-Three; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvMPi-Three; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvMPi-Three; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;">,</span></span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"> <span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;">20 234 ha) in the western contiguous USA. We used composite records of </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> </span></span></span></span></p> <p> <p> <p> <p>climate and fire to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of VLWF&ndash;climatic relationships. Results showed</p> <p>quantifiable fire weather leading up and up to 3 weeks post VLWF discovery, thus providing predictors of the probability</p> <p>that VLWF occurrence in a given week.Models were created for eight National Interagency Fire Center Geographic Area</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"> <p>Coordination Centers (GACCs). Accuracy was good (AUC</p> </span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTNR; color: #2b2e34; font-size: x-small;">0.80) for all models, but significant fire weather predictors </span></span></span></span></p> <p> <p> <p> <p>of VLWFs vary by GACC, suggesting that broad-scale ecological mechanisms associated with wildfires also vary across</p> <p>regions. These mechanisms are very similar to those found by previous analyses of annual area burned, but this analysis</p> <p>provides a means for anticipating VLWFs specifically and thereby the timing of substantial area burned within a given</p> <p>year, thus providing a quantifiable justification for proactive firemanagement practices tomitigate the risk and associated</p> <p>damage of VLWFs.</p> </p> </p> </p> </p> </p> </p>


  6. Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems. .
    Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems Science: 2014
    DOI: 10.1126/science.1251635
    Notes
    <p>In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems.</p>


  7. Climate Change Scoping Plan. .
    The California Global Warming Solutions Actct of 2006 : 2014
    http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/first_update_climate_change_scoping_plan.pdf

  8. Climate Change Vulnerability of Freshwater Fishes of the San Francisco Bay Area. Quiñones, Rebecca M.,Moyle, Peter B.,.
    San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science: 2014
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2014v12iss3art3

  9. COMBINED EFFECTS OF RESERVOIR OPERATIONS AND CLIMATE WARMING ON THE FLOW REGIME OF HYDROPOWER BYPASS REACHES OF CALIFORNIA'S SIERRA NEVADA. Rheinheimer, D. E. Viers, J. H..
    1: 2014
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rra.2749/abstract
    DOI: 10.1002/rra.2749
    Notes
    <p>Alterations to flow regimes from regulation and climatic change both affect the biophysical functioning of rivers over long time periods and large spatial areas. Historically, however, the effects of these flow alteration drivers have been studied separately. In this study, results from unregulated and regulated river management models were assessed to understand how flow regime alterations from river regulation differ under future climate conditions in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Four representative flow alteration metrics&mdash;mean annual flow, low flow duration, centroid timing and mean weekly rate of decrease&mdash;were calculated and statistically characterized under historical and future unregulated and regulated conditions over a 20-year period at each of the eight regulated river locations below dams across the Sierra Nevada. Future climatic conditions were represented by assuming an increase in air temperature of 6&thinsp;&deg;C above historical (1981&ndash;2000) air temperatures, with no change in other meteorological conditions. Results indicate that climate warming will measurably alter some aspects of the flow regime. By comparison, however, river regulation with business-as-usual operations will alter flow regimes much more than climate warming. Existing reservoirs can possibly be used to dampen the anticipated effects of climate warming through improved operations, though additional research is needed to identify the full suite of such possibilities. Copyright &copy; 2014 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.</p>


  10. Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways. Hylke de Vries, Caroline Katsman and Sybren Drijfhout.
    Environmental Research Letters: 2014
    Notes
    <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> <p>The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we</p> <p>construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to</p> <span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> <p>follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately (</p> </span></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;">&lsquo;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;">G</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;">&rsquo;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;">&lsquo;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;">W</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;">&rsquo;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+fb; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+fb; font-size: x-small;">fi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+fb; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+fb; font-size: x-small;">fi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;">&ndash;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;">60 cm in 2085, and +45</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d+20; font-size: x-small;">&ndash;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;">80 cm for the W-scenario. These </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> <p>numbers have been rounded to 5 cm precision, to emphasise to any end-user of these scenarios</p> <p>that estimated lower and upper limits themselves are uncertain.</p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;">nd a likely<span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> <p>range for the G-scenario of +25</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;">fth assessment Report of IPCC, but provides an </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> <p>alternative viewpoint based on global temperature changes rather than RCPs. This makes them</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> <p>rather accessible and readily applicable to policy makers and the general public. We</p> </span></p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;">, +3.5 K in 2085). Contributions from all major </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> <p>processes leading to sea level rise are included (ocean expansion, glacier melt, ice-sheet changes,</p> <p>and landwater changes), except glacial isostatic adjustment and surface elevation changes. As</p> <p>input we use data from 42 coupled global climate models that contributed to CMIP5. The</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> <p>approach is consistent with the recent</p> </span></p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;">,<span style="font-family: AdvOTf9433e2d; font-size: x-small;"> <p>+1.5 K in 2085) or more substantially (</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p>


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