Forest processes and global environmental change: Predicting the effects of individual and multiple stressors. Aber, J.; Neilson, R. P.; McNulty, S.; Lenihan, J. M.; Bachelet, D.; Drapek, R. J..
Global change involves the simultaneous and rapid alteration of several key environmental parameters that control the dynamics of forests. We cannot predict with certainty, through direct experimentation, what the responses of forests to global change will be, because we cannot carry out the multisite, multifactorial experiments required for doing so. The physical extent, complexity, and expense of even single-factor experiments at the scale of the whole ecosystem challenge our abilities, although several such experiments have been successfully undertaken (e.g., DeLucia et al. 1999, Wright and Rasmussen 1998). To inform policy decisions, however, the scientific community can offer an interdisciplinary synthesis of existing information. When this synthesis takes the form of a computer model, quantitative predictions can be made that integrate what has been learned from single-factor experiments. The success of such an approach depends on the quality and completeness of the information base and on the rigor of the modeling effort formation. At this time, the major mechanism for determining the degree of uncertainty in predictions is through comparison of results from runs of different models using identical input parameters.
Planning for biodiversity conservation: Putting conservation science into practice. Groves, C. R.; Jensen, D. B.; Valutis, L. L.; Redford, K. H.; Shaffer, M. L.; Scott, J. M.; Baumgartner, J. V.; Higgins, J. V.; Beck, M. W.; Anderson, M. G..
Reports the lessons learned from implementing the planning framework of The Nature Conservancy (TNC) as a model for the agencies and institutions around the world facing challenges in conservation planning. Discussion of the TNC seven-step plan, which identifies a network of lands and waters for conserving the elements of biodiversity within an ecoregion; Citation of relevant scientific literature that supports the importance of each step; Benefits of the conservation plan.
The interaction of fire, fuels, and climate across rocky mountain forests. Schoennagel, T.; Veblen, T. T.; Romme, W. H..
Understanding the relative influence of fuels and climate on wildfires across the Rocky Mountains is necessary to predict how fires may respond to a changing climate and to define effective fuel management approaches to controlling wildfire in this increasingly populated region. The idea that decades of fire suppression have promoted unnatural fuel accumulation and subsequent unprecedentedly large, severe wildfires across western forests has been developed primarily from studies of dry ponderosa pine forests. However, this model is being applied uncritically across Rocky Mountain forests (e.g., in the Healthy Forests Restoration Act). We synthesize current research and summarize lessons learned from recent large wildfires (the Yellowstone, Rodeo-Chediski, and Hayman fires), which represent case studies of the potential effectiveness of fuel reduction across a range of major forest types. A "one size fits all" approach to reducing wildfire hazards in the Rocky Mountain r!