Publications Published in Energy Policy

1. Abatement costs of post-Kyoto climate regimes. Elzen, Michel Den; Lucas, Paul; Vuuren, Detlef van.
   Energy Policy: 2005
   Notes
   This article analyses the abatement costs of three post-Kyoto regimes for differentiating commitments compatible with stabilising atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations at 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent in 2100. The three regimes explored are: (1) the Multi-Stage approach assumes a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved who are adopting either emission intensity or reductions targets; (2) the Brazilian Proposal approach, i.e. the allocation or reductions based on countries’ contribution to temperature increase; (3) Contraction & Convergence, with full participation in convergence of per capita emission allowances. In 2050, the global costs increase up to about 1% of the world GDP, ranging from 0.5% to 1.5%, depending on baseline scenario and marginal abatement costs. Four groups of regions can be identified on the basis of similar costs (expressed as the percentage of GDP). These are: (1) OECD regions with average costs; (2) FSU, the Middle East and Latin America with high costs; (3) South-East Asia and East Asia (incl. China) with low costs; and (4) South Asia (incl. India) and Africa with net gains from emissions trading for most regimes. The Brazilian Proposal approach gives the highest costs for groups 1 and 2. The distribution of costs for the Contraction & Convergence approach highly depends on the convergence year. The Multi-Stage approach and Contraction & Convergence (convergence year 2050) seem to result in relatively the most even distribution of costs amongst all Parties.
   
   
   
2. Analysis of the impacts of carbon taxes on energy systems in Japan. Nakata, Toshihiko; Lamont, Alan.
   Energy Policy: 2001
   Notes
   This research examines the impacts of using carbon and energy taxes to reduce carbon emissions from the Japanese energy system. A partial equilibrium model of the Japanese energy sector has been developed to forecast changes in the energy system out to the year 2040. The model accounts for the changes in energy technology capacities, fuels, and consumption in response to policy initiatives, such as taxes. We "nd that carbon and energy taxes will decrease carbon dioxide emission to a proposed target. The total cost in terms of supplying energy will be similar for either approach. However, the model also indicates that carbon taxes cause a shift in resources used from coal to gas. IGCC does not penetrate the market in carbon tax case. Since energy security is a primary concern to Japan, maintaining a diverse base of resources is very important. Policies that would eliminate coal, and efficient coal-based technologies, may not be desirable. The development of clean coal technologies and advanced transportation technologies suitable for Japan's energy systems should be the next target to overcome the limit of carbon taxes.
   
   
   
3. Carbon dioxide emission scenarios for the USA. Tol, Richard S. J..
   Energy Policy: 2007
   Notes
   A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best-guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of non-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The data poorly constrain crucial scenario elements, particularly energy prices. This suggests that the range of future emissions is wider still.
   
   
   
4. Conservation Screening Curves to Compare Efficiency Investments to Power Plants: Applications to Commercial Sector Conservation Programs. Koomey, Jonathan; Rosenfeld, Arthur H.; Gadgil, Ashok.
   Energy Policy: 1990
   Notes
   This paper describes a simplified methodology to compare supply and demand-side resources. The screening curve approach supplements with load shape information the data contained in a supply curve of conserved energy. In addition, a screening curve contains information on competing supply technologies, such as annualized capital costs, variable costs, and cost per delivered kWh. The information in the screening curve allows policymakers to promptly and conveniently compare the relevant parameters affecting supply and demand-side investment decisions. While many sophisticated computer models have evolved to account for the load shape impacts of energy efficiency investments, this sophistication has, by and large, not trickled down to spreadsheet-level or "back-of-the-envelope" analyses. Our methodology allows a simple summary of load shape characteristics based on the output of the more complicated models. It offers many advantages, principal of which is clarity in analyzing supply and demand-side investment choices. This paper first describes how supply-side screening curves have been used in the past, and develops the conceptual tools needed to apply integrated supply/demand screening curves in the least-cost utility planning process. It then presents examples of supply-side technologies and commercial sector demand-side management programs, and plots them on representative screening curves.
   
   
   
5. Disaggregated analysis of US energy consumption in the 1990s: evidence of the effects of the internet and rapid economic growth. Murtishaw, Scott; Schipper, Lee.
   Energy Policy: 2001
   Notes
   This paper decomposes US energy use from 1988 to 1998 and attributes the changes in energy use to three underlying factors: activity, structure, and intensity. For this study we use a bottom-up methodology, by separately decomposing delivered energy use in six sectors: travel, freight, manufacturing industries, non-manufacturing industries, residential, and services. The most commonly used indicator of energy efficiency in the total economy, the ratio of energy consumed to unit of GDP (E/GDP) created can often be misleading. The rapid decline in the E/GDP ratio in recent years has been used to support assertions that the internet and information technologies in general have enabled improvements in energy efficiencies. However, our disaggregate analysis suggests that energy intensities on average are falling more slowly than ever before while actual energy use increased faster than at any time since 1970. The decline in the E/GDP ratio in the mid- to late 1990s owes much more to structural changes in the demand for energy services than to falling energy intensities.
   
   
   
6. Explaining learning curves for wind power. Ibenholt, K..
   Energy Policy: 2002
   Notes
   Due to environmental concerns and the fact that fossil energy sources are non-renewable, there is a growing interest in alternative energy sources. One of these sources is wind. The utilisation of wind energy differs greatly between countries, both due to different aerodynamic conditions and to differing policies. This article compares the learning curves for wind power in three countries, Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom. The study reveals that policies that enhance competition probably can result in large cost reductions, but that they may hamper diffusion of wind power. Using price systems that guarantee wind turbine owners a certain price for each kWh generated, Germany and Denmark have created stable market conditions, and thereby increased the capacity installed, although costs have fallen less. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
   
   
   
7. Feebates, rebates and gas-guzzler taxes: a study of incentives for increased fuel economy. Greene, David L.; Patterson, Philip D.; Singh, Margaret; Li, Jia.
   Energy Policy: 2005
   Notes
   US fuel economy standards have not been changed significantly in 20 years. Feebates are a market-based alternative in which vehicles with fuel consumption rates above a “pivot point” are charged fees while vehicles below receive rebates. By choice of pivot points, feebate systems can be made revenue neutral. Feebates have been analyzed before. This study re-examines feebates using recent data, assesses how the undervaluing of fuel economy by consumers might affect their efficacy, tests sensitivity to the cost of fuel economy technology and price elasticities of vehicle demand, and adds assessments of gas-guzzler taxes or rebates alone. A feebate rate of $500 per 0.01 gallon per mile (GPM) produces a 16 percent increase in fuel economy, while a $1000 per 0.01 GPM results in a 29 percent increase, even if consumers count only the first 3 years of fuel savings. Unit sales decline by about 0.5 percent but sales revenues increase because the added value of fuel economy technologies outweighs the decrease in sales. In all cases, the vast majority of fuel economy increase is due to adoption of fuel economy technologies rather than shifts in sales.
   
   
   
8. Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen futures literature. McDowall, William; Eames, Malcolm.
   Energy Policy: 2006
   Notes
   Scenarios, roadmaps and similar foresight methods are used to cope with uncertainty in areas with long planning horizons, such as energy policy, and research into the future of hydrogen energy is no exception. Such studies can play an important role in the development of shared visions of the future: creating powerful expectations of the potential of emerging technologies and mobilising resources necessary for their realisation. This paper reviews the hydrogen futures literature, using a six-fold typology to map the state of the art of scenario construction. The paper then explores the expectations embodied in the literature, through the ‘answers’ it provides to questions about the future of hydrogen. What are the drivers, barriers and challenges facing the development of a hydrogen economy? What are the key technological building blocks required? In what kinds of futures does hydrogen become important? What does a hydrogen economy look like, how and when does it evolve, and what does it achieve? The literature describes a diverse range of possible futures, from decentralised systems based upon small-scale renewables, through to centralised systems reliant on nuclear energy or carbon-sequestration. There is a broad consensus that the hydrogen economy emerges only slowly, if at all, under ‘Business as Usual’ scenarios. Rapid transitions to hydrogen occur only under conditions of strong governmental support combined with, or as a result of, major ‘discontinuities’ such as shifts in society's environmental values, ‘game changing’ technological breakthroughs, or rapid increases in the oil price or speed and intensity of climate change.
   
   
   
9. Global warming and electricity demand A study of California. Baxter, Lester W; Calandri, Kevin.
   Energy Policy: 1992
   Notes
   In this paper we estimate changes in California's annual electricity use and peak demand by 2010 under two global warming scenarios. We use each warming scenario to produce an electricity demand projection with end-use energy models. Our analysis focuses on the heating and cooling of buildings and the pumping and transport of water for farms and cities. The results suggest global warming has a moderate effect on electricity demand. Under our worst scenario, a 1.9°C increase, we project Statewide electricity requirements will increase by about 7 500 GWh (2.6%) and 2 400 MW (3.7%). We conclude discussion with thoughts on the implications a warmer world may have for energy forecasters and resource planners.
   
   
   
10. Greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower. Gagnon, Lue.
    Energy Policy: 1997
    Notes
    This paper reports on the findings of a recent IAEA expert meeting on the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the full ‘lifecycle’ of hydropower. It discusses the different categories of hydropower plants in view of the two main sources of GHG emissions: first, direct and indirect emissions associated with the construction of the plants; second, emissions from decaying biomass from land flooded by hydro reservoirs. In terms of GHG emissions, this paper shows that, in most cases, hydropower is a good alternative to fossil fuelled power generation. For hydropower plants in cold climate, a typical GHG emission factor is 15 g CO2 equivalent/kWh, which is 30–60 times less than the factors of usual fossil fuel generation. For some hydropower plants in tropical climates, theoretical calculations have shown that reservoir emissions could be very high. However, no measurements of emissions were taken from tropical reservoirs and the current level of research does not allow for a reliable evaluation. Research is urgently needed in humid tropical climates.