Publications Published in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

1. Adaptation to climate change in the Northeast United States: opportunities, processes, constraints. Moser, Susanne; Kasperson, Roger; Yohe, Gary; Agyeman, Julian.
   Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change: 2007
   Notes
   Scientific evidence accumulating over the past decade documents that climate change impacts are already being experienced in the US Northeast. Policy-makers and resource managers must now prepare for the impacts from climate change and support implementing such plans on the ground. In this paper we argue that climate change challenges the region to maintain its economic viability, but also holds some opportunities that may enhance economic development, human well-being, and social justice. To face these challenges and seize these opportunities effectively we must better understand adaptation capacities, opportunities and constraints, the social processes of adaptation, approaches for engaging critical players and the broader public in informed debate, decision-making, and conscious interventions in the adaptation process. This paper offers a preliminary qualitative assessment, in which we emphasize the need for (1) assessing the feasibility and side effects of technological adaptation options, (2) increasing available resources and improving equitable access to them, (3) increasing institutional flexibility, fit, cooperation and decision-making authority, (4) using and enhancing human and social capital, (5) improving access to insurance and other risk-spreading mechanisms, and (6) linking scientific information more effectively to decision-makers while engaging the public. Throughout, we explore these issues through illustrative sectoral examples. We conclude with a number of principles that may guide the preparation of future adaptation plans for the Northeast.
   
   
   
2. Regulatory Constraints to Carbon Sequestration in Terrestrial Ecosystems and Geologic Formations: A California Perspective. Edward, Vine.
   Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change: 2004
   Notes
   Carbon sequestration in terrestrialecosystems and geologic formations providesa significant opportunity for California toaddress global climate change. The physicalsize of its resources (e.g., forests,agriculture, soils, rangeland, and geologicformations) and the expertise in Californiaprovides a substantial foundation fordeveloping carbon sequestration activities.Furthermore, the co-benefits of carbonsequestration – such as improved soil andwater quality, restoration of degradedecosystems, increased plant and cropproductivity, and enhanced oil recovery – are significant. In fact, carbonsequestration often represents a `noregrets'' strategy – implementing carbonsequestration provides multiple benefits,even without the advent of global climatechange.Nevertheless, researchers need to addressseveral issues to determine more accuratelythe potential, benefits, and costs ofsequestering carbon in California''sterrestrial ecosystems and geologicformations, as well as to identify the mostpromising sequestration methods and theiroptimal implementation. One key issue isthe type of regulatory constraints facingdevelopers of carbon sequestrationprojects: what permits are needed fordeveloping these projects? The permittingprocess may impede the penetration ofsequestration technologies into the marketif the costs (including transaction costs)of obtaining the permits are too burdensomeand costly. For example, at least ninefederal regulations and seven stateregulations will potentially influencecarbon sequestration projects inCalifornia. This paper also provides anexample of the types of permits needed fordeveloping a carbon sequestration project,using California as an example. It ispossible that a carbon sequestrationproject may have to obtain a total of 15permits (3 federal, 6 state, 6 local),before it even starts to operate. In theconcluding section, we offer some suggestedareas for research and activities forpolicy makers.
   
   
   
3. Setting greenhouse gas emission targets under baseline uncertainty: the Bush Climate Change Initiative. Strachan, Neil.
   Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change: 2007
   Notes
   There is substantial uncertainty regarding baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasts—i.e., how GHG emissions will grow over time in the absence of policy intervention. Thus baseline uncertainty should be a key consideration in setting GHG emissions targets as a mitigation strategy to respond to global climate change. At a minimum, the emissions target must be less than the baseline level to induce changing behavior and new investment. Despite this fundamental policy criterion, baseline considerations have played only a minor role in target setting under international climate policy. Baseline uncertainty applies to both absolute and intensity based emissions targets. It is demonstrated that one advantage of intensity targets is reduced uncertainty in the projected baseline, however there will always be some residual uncertainty in model projections. To illustrate the importance of considering baseline uncertainty in GHG target setting, the Bush Climate Change Initiative is analyzed against its projected baseline as a case study of a modest intensity target. Based on comparison with historical data, the range of projections by major energy-economic models, past discrepancies in the accuracy of model projections and the added complexity of sector-specific drivers for non-CO2 GHGs, it is shown that the Bush Initiative cannot be guaranteed or even expected to deliver actual reductions against an uncertain baseline. This finding emphasizes the importance of setting a target that accounts for baseline uncertainty to achieve genuine mitigation of GHG emissions.
   
   
   
4. The value of energy efficiency programs for US residential and commercial buildings in a warmer world. Scott, Michael; Dirks, James; Cort, Katherine.
   Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change: 2008
   Notes
   US residential and commercial buildings were responsible for about 41 exajoules (EJ) of primary energy use per year in 2002, accounting for approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic carbon (C) emissions of 6.7 Gt that contribute to climate change. US Government-sponsored building energy efficiency research and implementation programs are focused on reducing energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings and reducing these carbon (C) emissions. Although not specifically intended for adaptation to a warmer climate and less effective than under today’s cooler climate, these programs also could help reduce energy demand in a future warmer world. Warming scenarios projected by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 imply net overall decreases in both site energy and primary energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings, largely because of the reduced need for heating. However, there would be as much as a 25% increase in building space cooling demand and a significant part of the increase could be offset by energy-efficiency improvements in buildings. Overall, in the US, buildings-related energy efficiency programs would reduce site energy consumption in buildings in the US by more than 2 EJ in 2020 and primary energy by more than 3.5 EJ, more than enough to offset the projected growth in cooling energy consumption due to climate change and growth in the US building stock. The savings would have an estimated annual net value at 2005 energy prices of between $45.0 and $47.3 billion to consumers.