Publications Published in Climate Change

1. A review of forestry mitigation and adaptation strategies in the Northeast U.S.. Alexander M. Evans, Robert Perschel.
   Climate Change: 2009
   Notes
   The forests of the Northeast U.S. will be significantly affected by climate change, but they also play a role in mitigating climate change by sequestering CO2. Forest management decisions can increase forests’ resilience and ability to adapt to altered precipitation and temperature patterns. At the same time, management strategies that increase carbon storage will help reduce climate disruptions. Because of climate change, foresters on managed lands should take into account changes in species composition, more frequent disturbances, potential changes in growth rates, and distorted insect and disease dynamics. Silvicultural prescriptions should emphasize low impact logging techniques, the perpetuation of structural complexity, legacy trees, extended rotations, and uneven aged management systems where appropriate. In order to maintain resilience as well as to store carbon, forests should be protected from land use conversion.
   
   
   
2. A review of forestry mitigation and adaptation strategies in the Northeast U.S.. Alexander M. Evans, Robert Perschel.
   Climate Change: 2008
   DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9569-3
   Notes
   Abstract The forests of the Northeast U.S. will be significantly affected by climate change, but they also play a role in mitigating climate change by sequestering CO2. Forest management decisions can increase forests’ resilience and ability to adapt t altered precipitation and temperature patterns. At the same time, management strategies that increase carbon storage will help reduce climate disruptions. Because of climate change, foresters on managed lands should take into account changes in species composition, more frequent disturbances, potential changes in growth rates, and distorted insect and disease dynamics. Silvicultural prescriptions should emphasize low impact logging techniques, the perpetuation of structural complexity, legacy trees, extended rotations, and uneven aged management systems where appropriate. In order to maintain resilience as well as to store carbon, forests should be protected from land use conversion.
   
   
   
3. Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt. Katsman, Caroline A.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Burgers, Gerrit.
   Climate Change: 2008
   DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9442-9
   Notes
   Here we present a set of regional climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In this study, the latest observations and results obtained with state-of-the-art climate models are combined. In addition, regional effects due to ocean dynamics and changes in the Earth’s gravity field induced by melting of land-based ice masses have been taken into account. The climate scenarios are constructed for the target years 2050 and 2100, for both a moderate and a large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature (2 °C and 4 °C in 2100 respectively). The climate scenarios contain contributions from changes in ocean density (global thermal expansion and local steric changes related to changing ocean dynamics) and changes in ocean mass (melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and (minor) terrestrial water-storage contributions). All major components depend on the global temperature rise achieved in the target periods considered. The resulting set of climate scenarios represents our best estimate of twenty-first century sea level rise in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, given the current understanding of the various contributions. For 2100, they yield a local rise of 30 to 55 cm and 40 to 80 cm for the moderate and large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature, respectively.
   
   
   
4. Evaluation of a WRF dynamical downscaling simulation over California. Peter Caldwell, Hung-Neng S. Chin, David C. Bader, Govindasamy Bala.
   Climate Change: 2009
   DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9583-5
   Notes
   This paper presents results from a 40 year Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) based dynamical downscaling experiment performed at 12 km horizontal grid spacing, centered on the state of California, and forced by a 1◦× 1.25◦ finite-volume current-climate Community Climate System Model ver. 3 (CCSM3) simulation. In-depth comparisons between modeled and observed regional-average precipitation, 2 m temperature, and snowpack are performed. The regional model reproduces the spatial distribution of precipitation quite well, but substantially overestimates rainfall along windward slopes. This is due to strong overprediction of precipitation intensity; precipitation frequency is actually underpredicted by the model. Moisture fluxes impinging on the coast seem to be well-represented over California, implying that precipitation bias is caused by processes internal to WRF. Positive-definite moisture advection and use of the Grell cumulus parameterization result in some decrease in precipitation bias, but other sourc s are needed to explain the full bias magnitude. Surface temperature is well simulated in all seasons except summer, when overly-dry soil moisture results in a several degree warm bias in both CCSM3 and WRF. Additionally, coastal temperatures appear to be too warm due to a coastal sea surface temperature bias inherited from CCSM3. Modeled snowfall/snowmelt agrees quite well with observations, but snow water equivalent is found to be much too low due to monthly reinitialization of all regional model fields from CCSM3 values.
   
   
   
5. National forest carbon inventories: policy needs and assessment capacity. Krister Andersson, Tom P. Evans, Kenneth R. Richards.
   Climate Change: 2008
   DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9526-6
   Notes
   Previous research has identified the importance of the role of land cover in the global carbon cycle. In particular, forests have been identified as a significant carbon sink that can mitigate the rate of global climate change. Policy makers are faced with complex and difficult challenges in getting timely and useful information in monitoring global forest resources. Recent advances in the tools and methods of forest carbon accounting have produced new, innovative approaches to forestbased carbon inventories. But it is important as new tools are developed that scientists understand the needs of policy makers and that policy makers understand the capabilities and limitations of forest inventory methods. This paper explores four different policy applications that rely, or could benefit from, national carbon inventories. The goal is to help build a bridge between the communities of climate policy makers and scientists specialized in forest carbon inventories. To this end, we pursue three specific objectives: Fi st we provide an overview for policy makers about approaches to forest carbon inventories, paying particular attention to the contributions of remote sensing technologies. Second, we outline the issues particularly relevant to forest inventory scientists who are interested in responding to public policy needs. We then discuss the tradeoffs between information cost, accuracy, precision, transparency and timeliness that need to be balanced in long-term monitoring of forest carbon. Finally, the article concludes with a series of observations and recommendations for the implementation of forest carbon inventories as increasingly central components of global climate change policy.
   
   
   
6. National forest carbon inventories: policy needs and assessment capacity. Krister Andersson,Tom P. Evans, Kenneth R. Richards.
   Climate Change: 2009
   DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9526-6
   Notes
   Previous research has identified the importance of the role of land cover in the global carbon cycle. In particular, forests have been identified as a significant carbon sink that can mitigate the rate of global climate change. Policy makers are faced with complex and difficult challenges in getting timely and useful information in monitoring global forest resources. Recent advances in the tools and methods of forest carbon accounting have produced new, innovative approaches to forestbased carbon inventories. But it is important as new tools are developed that scientists understand the needs of policy makers and that policy makers understand the capabilities and limitations of forest inventory methods. This paper explores four different policy applications that rely, or could benefit from, national carbon inventories. The goal is to help build a bridge between the communities of climate policy makers and scientists specialized in forest carbon inventories. To this end, we pursue three specific objectives: First we provide an overview for policy makers about approaches to forest carbon inventories, paying particular attention to the contributions of remote sensing technologies. Second, we outline the issues particularly relevant to forest inventory scientists who are interested in responding to public policy needs. We then discuss the tradeoffs between information cost, accuracy, precision, transparency and timeliness that need to be balanced in long-term monitoring of forest carbon. Finally, the article concludes with a series of observations and recommendations for the implementation of forest carbon inventories as increasingly central components of global climate change policy.
   
   
   
7. “Reasons for concern” (about climate change) in the United States. Gary Yohe.
   Climate Change: 2009
   DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9797-6
   Notes
   Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change commits its parties to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Authors of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, b) offered some insight into what negotiators might consider dangerous by highlighting five “reasons for concern” (RFC’s) and tracking concern against changes in global mean temperature; they illustrated their assessments in the now iconic “burning embers” diagram. The Fourth Assessment Report reaffirmed the value of plotting RFC’s against temperature change (IPCC 2007a, b), and Smith et al. (2009) produced an unpated embers visualization for the globe. This paper applies the same assessment and communication strategies to calibrate the comparable RFC’s for the United States. It adds “National Security Concern” as a sixth RFC because many now see changes in the intesity and/or frequency of extreme events around the world as “risk enhancers” that deserve attention at the highest levels of the US policy and research communities. The US embers portrayed here suggest that: (1) US policy-makers will not discover anything really “dangerous” over the near to medium term if they consider only economic impacts that are aggregated across the entire country but that (2) they could easily uncover “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” by focusing their attention on changes in the intensities, frequencies, and regional distributions of extreme weather events driven by climate change.
   
   
   
8. Sectoral approaches to improve regional carbon budgets. Pete Smith, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Ivan A. Janssens, Stefan Reis, Gregg Marland, Jean-François Soussana, Torben R. Christensen, Linda Heath, Mike Apps, Vlady Alexeyev, Jingyun Fang, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Juan Pablo Guerschman, Yao Huang, Esteban Jobbagy, Daniel Murdiyarso, Jian Ni, Antonio Nobre, Changhui Peng, Adrian Walcroft, Shao Qiang Wang, Yude Pan, Guang Sheng Zhou.
   Climate Change: 2008
   DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9378-5
   Notes
   Humans utilise about 40% of the earth’s net primary production (NPP) but the products of this NPP are often managed by different sectors, with timber and forest products managed by the forestry sector and food and fibre products from croplands and grasslands managed by the agricultural sector. Other significant anthropogenic impacts on the global carbon cycle include human utilization of fossil fuels and impacts on less intensively managed systems such as peatlands, wetlands and permafrost. A great deal of knowledge, expertise and data is available within each sector. We describe the contribution of sectoral carbon budgets to our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Whilst many sectors exhibit similarities for carbon budgeting, some key differences arise due to differences in goods and services provided, ecology, management practices used, landmanagement personnel responsible, policies affecting land management, data types and availability, and the drivers of change. We review the methods and data sourc s available for assessing sectoral carbon budgets, and describe some of key data limitations and uncertainties for each sector in different regions of the world. We identify the main gaps in our knowledge/data, show that coverage is better for the developed world for most sectors, and suggest how sectoral carbon budgets could be improved in the future. Research priorities include the development of shared protocols through site networks, a move to full carbon accounting within sectors, and the assessment of full greenhouse gas budgets.
   
   
   
9. Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases. Daniel J. A. Johansson, U. Martin Persson, Christian Azar.
   Climate Change: 2008
   DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9381-x
   Notes
   The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of GlobalWarming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH4), should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH4, and a long-lived GHG, carbon dioxide (CO2), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an int grated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH4 relative to CO2. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the shortlived gas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C, CH4 is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO2 in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP100 value.