Publications Published in Ecosystems

1. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Vernal Pool Ecosystems and Endemic Branchiopods.. Pyke, Christopher P..
   Springer - Verlag New York, Inc. Ecosystems: 2005
   Notes
   This study evaluated the hydrologic sensitivity of vernal pool ecosystems in the Central Valley of California to climatic changes projected for 2100. A vernal pool water- balance model was used to evaluate rain-fed vernal pools at four locations under future conditions projected by two contrasting global climate models. The potential for change in the duration of continuous inundation, frequency of reproductively suitable inundation events, and the seasonal distribution of inundation was quantified. The potential impact of hydrologic changes varied by species and by location. Three scales of response were identified: (a) At the regional scale, pools in the middle of the Central Valley near Merced were the most responsive to climatic changes. (b) At the local scale, smaller, shallower pools had the greatest potential to change the distribution of reproductively suitable habitat available to branchiopods. (c) At the individual pool scale, changes in precipitation will dominate changes in temperature, resulting in relatively linear responses in the duration of inundation. The ecological impact of these changes will be determined by a balance between the increasing suitability of vernal pools for branchiopod predators and the hydrologic improvement of currently marginal habitats.
   
   
   
2. Forest Pattern, Fire, and Climatic Change in the Sierra Nevada. Carol Miller; Dean L. Urban.
   Ecosystems: 1999
   Notes
   In the Sierra Nevada, distributions of forest tree species are largely controlled by the soil-moisture balance. Changes in temperature or precipitation as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations could lead to changes in species distributions. In addition, climatic change could increase the frequency and severity of wildfires. We used a forest gap model developed for Sierra Nevada forests to investigate the potential sensitivity of these forests to climatic change, including a changing fire regime. Fuel moisture influences the fire regime and couples fire to climate. Fires are also affected by fuel loads, which accumulate according to forest structure and composition. These model features were used to investigate the complex interactions between climate, fire, and forest dynamics. Eight hypothetical climate-change scenarios were simulated, including two general circulation model (GCM) predictions of a 2 x CO2 world. The response of forest structure,species composition, and the fire regime to these anges in the climate were examined at four sites across an elevation gradient. Impacts on woody biomass and species composition as a result of climatic change were site specific and depended on the environmental constraints of a site and the environmental tolerances of the tree species simulated. Climatic change altered the fire regime both directly and indirectly. Fire frequency responded directly to climate's influence on fuel moisture, whereas fire extent was affected by changes that occurred in either woody biomass or species composition. The influence of species composition on fuel-bed bulk density was particularly important. Future fires in the Sierra Nevada could be both more frequent and of greater spatial extent if GCM predictions prove true.
   
   
   
3. Quantitative Evidence for Increasing Forest Fire Severity in the Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascade Mountains, California and Nevada, USA. J. D. Miller, H. D. Safford, M. Crimmins, A. E. Thode.
   Ecosystems: 2008
   DOI: 10.1007/s10021-008-9201-9
   Notes
   Recent research has concluded that forest wildfires in the western United States are becoming larger and more frequent. A more significant question may be whether the ecosystem impacts of wildfire are also increasing. We show that a large area (approximately 120000 km2) of California and western Nevada experienced a notable increase in the extent of forest stand-replacing (‘‘high severity’’) fire between 1984 and 2006. High severity forest fire is closely linked to forest fragmentation, wildlife habitat availability, erosion rates and sedimentation, post-fire seedling recruitment, carbon sequestration, and various other ecosystem properties and processes. Mean and maximum fire size, and the area burned annually have also all risen substantially since the beginning of the 1980s, and are now at or above values from the decades preceding the 1940s, when fire suppression became national policy. These trends are occurring in concert with a regional rise in temperature and a long-term increase in annual precipitat on. A close examination of the climate–fire relationship and other evidence suggests that forest fuels are no longer limiting fire occurrence and behavior across much of the study region. We conclude that current trends in forest fire severity necessitate a reexamination of the implications of all-out fire suppression and its ecological impacts.