Publications Published in Energy

1. Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change. Sailor, D J; Pavlova, A A.
   Energy: 2003
   Notes
   Existing state-level models relating climate parameters to residential electricity consumption indicate a nominal sensitivity of 2–4% for each degree Celsius increase in ambient temperatures. Long-term climate change will also impact electricity consumption through corresponding increases in the market saturation of air conditioning. In this paper we use air conditioning market saturation data for 39 US cities to develop a generalized functional relationship between market saturation and cooling degree days. The slope of this saturation curve is particularly high for cities that currently have low to moderate saturation. As a result, the total response of per capita electricity consumption to long-term warming may be much higher than previously thought. A detailed analysis of 12 cities in four states shows that for some cities changes in market saturation may be two to three times more important than the role of weather sensitivity of current loads. While actual behavioral response to climate change will be more complicated than that captured in our model of market saturation, this approach provides a new perspective on the sensitivity of space conditioning electricity consumption in the US to climate change.
   
   
   
2. Energy efficiency—a critical view. Herring, Horace.
   Energy: 2006
   Notes
   This paper challenges the view that improving the efficiency of energy use will lead to a reduction in national energy consumption, and hence is an effective policy for reducing national CO2 emissions. It argues that improving energy efficiency lowers the implicit price of energy and hence make its use more affordable, thus leading to greater use—an effect termed the ‘rebound’ or ‘takeback’ effect. The paper presents the views of economists, as well as green critics of ‘the gospel of efficiency’. The paper argues that a more effective CO2 policy is to concentrate on shifting to non-fossil fuels, like renewables, subsidized through a carbon tax. Ultimately what is needed, to limit energy consumption, is energy sufficiency (or conservation) rather than energy efficiency.
   
   
   
3. Life-cycle cost analysis of energy efficiency design options for residential furnaces and boilers. Lutz, James; Lekov, Alex; Chan, Peter; Whitehead, Camilla Dunham; Meyers, Steve; McMahon, James.
   Energy: 2006
   Notes
   In 2001, the US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a rulemaking process to consider whether to amend the existing energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers. A key factor in DOE's consideration of new standards is the economic impacts on consumers of possible revisions to energy-efficiency standards. Determining cost-effectiveness requires an appropriate comparison of the additional first cost of energy efficiency design options with the savings in operating costs. DOE's preferred approach involves comparing the total life-cycle cost (LCC) of owning and operating a more efficient appliance with the LCC for a baseline design. This study describes the method used to conduct the LCC analysis and presents the estimated change in LCC associated with more energy-efficient equipment. The results indicate that efficiency improvement relative to the baseline design can reduce the LCC in each of the product classes considered.
   
   
   
4. Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A. - Methodology and results for eight states. Sailor, David J; Munoz, Ricardo J.
   Energy: 1997