Publications Published in Enviornmental Research Letters

1. Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?. Bond, Tami C..
   Enviornmental Research Letters: 2007
   Notes
   'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'—about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored.
   
   
   
2. Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise . Hansen, J.E..
   Enviornmental Research Letters: 2007
   Notes
   I suggest that a 'scientific reticence' is inhibiting the communication of a threat of a potentially large sea level rise. Delay is dangerous because of system inertias that could create a situation with future sea level changes out of our control. I argue for calling together a panel of scientific leaders to hear evidence and issue a prompt plain-written report on current understanding of the sea level change issue.
   
   
   
3. The Risk of Surprise in energy technology costs. Hultman, Nathan E.; Koomey, Jonathan.
   Enviornmental Research Letters: 2007
   Notes
   As countries begin to reassess and expand their energy research and development programs, it is appropriate to understand the likely costs of alternate approaches. Unfortunately, communities of experts have a well-known optimistic bias in their judgments. We review findings from several disciplines that underscore this tendency toward overconfidence as well as some proposed alternatives to incorporate it in public decision-making. We further argue, based on a disaggregated analysis of US nuclear power costs, that incorporating a second-order uncertainty in the shape of the distribution of cost components is essential for capturing important elements of uncertainty in moving forward with expanded energy R&D programs.