Publications Published in Global Change Research Program

1. Preliminary Steps towards Integrating Climate and Land Use: The Development of Land-Use Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Emissions Storylines. .
   Global Change Research Program: 2008
   DOI: EPA/600/R-08/076A
   Notes
   Climate and land use change are major components of global environmental change with feedbacks between these components. The consequences of these interactions also show that land use may exacerbate or alleviate climate change effects. Based on these results it is important to use land use scenarios that are consistent with the specific assumptions underlying the climate change scenarios. The Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project developed outputs that are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines and downscaled these to the United States. ICLUS outputs are derived from a demographic model and a spatial allocation model that distributes the population as housing across the landscape for the four main SRES storylines and a base case. The model is run for the conterminous United States and output is available for each scenario by decade to 2100. In addition to maps of housing density across the conterminous United States, this project also generated maps of impervious surface cover based on the housing density projections. This report describes the modeling methodology for the ICLUS project, some initial analyses using the ICLUS outputs, and recommendations for further research.
   
   
   
2. Preliminary Steps towards Integrating Climate and Land Use: The Development of Land-Use Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Emissions Storylines. .
   Global Change Research Program: 2008
   Notes
   Climate and land use change are major components of global environmental change with feedbacks between these components. The consequences of these interactions also show that land use may exacerbate or alleviate climate change effects. Based on these results it is important to use land use scenarios that are consistent with the specific assumptions underlying the climate change scenarios. The Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project developed outputs that are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines and downscaled these to the United States. ICLUS outputs are derived from a demographic model and a spatial allocation model that distributes the population as housing across the landscape for the four main SRES storylines and a base case. The model is run for the conterminous United States and output is available for each scenario by decade to 2100. In addition to maps of housing density across the conterminous United States, this project also generated maps of impervious surface cover based on the housing density projections. This report describes the modeling methodology for the ICLUS project, some initial analyses using the ICLUS outputs, and recommendations for further research.