Publications Published in The Integrated Assessment Journal
Informing adaptation to climate change in the UK: Some sectoral impact costs. Hunt, Alistair.
The Integrated Assessment Journal:
nalyses of climate change impact costs to date have been dominated by efforts using global-scale integrated assessment models or national/ regional macro-economic models. Whilst these have been useful in scoping out possible economic impacts at these scales, the usefulness of the results is less obvious in informing decisions regarding climate change adaptation. This study takes a first step towards redressing this imbalance by conducting a “bottom-up” study of potential climate change impact costs in the UK that reflects the priorities identified by regional stakeholder groups within the UK. Sectors addressed include: health, built environment, transport, energy, tourism, biodiversity, water resources and agriculture. The UKCIP02 (Hadley Centre) climate scenarios are used with the UKCIP and BESEECH socio-economic scenarios for 3 thirtyyear time slices from 2010. We find that there are both significant benefits and costs from climate change in the UK, depending on the sector and the climate change/socio-econ ic scenario considered. In a number of cases there are benefits and costs for different impacts within the same sector. Notable net benefits are projected in tourism, health, energy and transport winter maintenance. Net losses are projected in the buildings sector—particularly in the Medium-High and High emission scenarios— and transport infrastructure. Costs are generally higher in London andthe South East of England and lower in Scotland.