Adapting California's Ecosystems to a Changing Climate. Elizabeth A. Chornesky, David D. Ackerly, Paul Beier, Frank W. Davis, Lorraine E. Flint, Joshua J. Lawler, Peter B. Moyle, Max A. Moritz, Mary Scoonover, Kristin Byrd, Pelayo Alvarez, Nicole E. Heller, Elisabeth R. Micheli, and Stuart B. Weiss .
The central all-encompassing question put to the panel is whether the CALFED program has adopted an appropriate approach to modeling the CVP-SWP-Central Valley system. Is the general CALSIM modeling approach appropriate for predicting the performance of the general facilities and for use in allocation planning, assessing water supply reliabilities and for carrying out operational studies? We believe the use of an optimization engine for simulating the hydrology and for making allocation decisions is an appropriate approach and is in fact the approach many serious efforts of this kind are using. It is a substantial improvement of the previous modeling approaches and provides a basis for consensus among federal and state interests. The modeling approach addresses many of the complexities of the CVP-SWP system and its water management decisions. There exists a common tension between those who wish for greater detail and those who want less detail from the model. This argues for a more comprehensive, modular and flexible approach than is now available. In this report we suggest some ways this might be accomplished in the future. We also propose some management procedures that could be considered to improve model and model application quality control and documentation. The openness and availability of the model is admirable and very important given the numerous stakeholders who have interests in the management and allocation of water in the state. To increase the public's confidence in the many components and features of CALSIM II, we suggest that these components of CALSIM be subjected to careful technical peer review by appropriate experts and stakeholders.
California is experiencing climate change impacts. These impacts include, among others, sea level rise, increasing temperatures, shifting precipitation trends, extreme weather events, increasing size and duration of wildfires, and earlier melting of The Sierra Nevada snowpack. All of these impacts affect energy supply and demand and virtually all aspects of related energy infrastructure including electricity, natural gas and fuels (conventional and renewable), transport, conversion, delivery, and use of energy. This paper describes what is known about many of the impacts today and what is projected to 2100. Potential solutions or strategies are also offered on how to best adapt to these changes.