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Browse publications gathered by the California Energy Commission that focus on climate change issues relevant to the State of California. Find both PIER research papers as well as relevant articles published in peer reviewed journals.

Publications Published in 2006

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  1. A Component-Resampling Approach for Estimating Probability Distributions from Small Forecast Ensembles. Dettinger, Michael.
    Climatic Change: 2006
    Notes
    In many meteorological and climatological modeling applications, the availability of ensembles of predictions containing very large numbers of members would substantially ease statistical analyses and validations. This study describes and demonstrates an objective approach for generating large ensembles of 'additional' realizations from smaller ensembles, where the additional ensemble members share important first-and second-order statistical characteristics and some dynamic relations within the original ensemble. By decomposing the original ensemble members into assuredly independent time-series components (using a form of principal component decomposition) that can then be resampled randomly and recombined, the component-resampling procedure generates additional time series that follow the large and small scale structures in the original ensemble members, without requiring any tuning by the user. The method is demonstrated by applications to operational medium-range weather forecast ensembles from a single NCEP weather model and application to a multi-model, multi-emission-scenarios ensemble of 21st Century climate-change projections.


  2. A Multiwinter Analysis of Channeled Flow through a Prominent Gap along the Northern California Coast during CALJET and PACJET. Neiman, Paul J.; Ralph, F. Martin; White, Allen B.; Parrish, David D.; Holloway, John S. & Bartels, Diana L..
    Monthly Weather Review: 2006
    Notes
    Experimental observations from coastal and island wind profilers, aircraft, and other sensors deployed during the California Land-falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) of 1997-1998 and the Pacific Land-falling Jets Experiment (PACJET) of 2000-2001 through 2003-2004 were combined with observations from operational networks to document the regular occurrence and characteristic structure of shallow (~400-500-m-deep), cold air streams flowing westward through California's Petaluma Gap from the Central Valley to the coast during the winter months. The Petaluma Gap, which is the only major airshed outlet from the Central Valley, is ~35-50 km wide and has walls extending, at most, a modest 600-900 m above the valley floor. Based on this geometry, together with winter meteorological conditions typical of the region (e.g., cold air pooled in the Central Valley and approaching extratropical cyclones), this gap is predisposed to generating westward-directed ageostrophic flows driven by along-gap pressure differences. Case studies and a multiwinter (5 y) analysis are presented here to show that flows through the Petaluma Gap significantly impact local distributions of wind, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pollutants, and that they contribute to the generation of coastally trapped air streams. These gap flows preferentially occur in pre-cold-frontal conditions, largely because sea-level pressure decreases westward along the gap in a stably stratified atmosphere in advance of approaching cold-frontal pressure troughs. Air streams exiting the Petaluma Gap are only several hundred meters deep and characterized by relatively cold, easterly flow capped by a layer of enhanced static stability and directional vertical wind shear. Despite the shallow character of these gap-flow air streams, they contribute to blocking, which enhances precipitation along the coast and reduces precipitation in the coastal mountains (at least in a mean sense) by acting as an obstacle to incoming moist-neutral oceanic flow. Airborne air-chemistry observations collected offshore by the NOAA P-3 aircraft illustrate the fact that gap-flow events can transport pollutants from inland to the coast.


  3. Analysis of Climate Effects on Agicultural Systems - FINAL REPORT. Andrew Paul Gutierrez, Luigi Ponti, C.K. Ellis, Thibaud d'Oultremont.
    University of California, Berkeley : 2006
    http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2005-188-SF#
    Notes
    Report is a supplemental report to the main PIER-funded report that is an attachment to the Climate Action Team Report to the Governor and Legislature.


  4. An Assessment of Impacts of Future CO2 and Climate on Agriculture - FINAL REPORT. Dennis Baldocchi, Simon Wong, Andrew Gutierrez.
    University of California, Berkeley : 2006
    http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2005-187-SF#

  5. An Overview of Geologic Carbon Sequestration Potential in California. Cameron Downey, John Clinkenbeard.
    : 2006
    http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2006-088
    Notes
    An inventory of sedimentary basins was screened for preliminary suitability for carbon sequestration.


  6. Application of Airborne LIDAR for Seacliff Volumetric Change and Beach-Sediment Budget Contributions. Adam P. Young & Scott A. Ashford.
    Journal of Coastal Research: 2006
    Notes
    Coastal seacliff erosion in California threatens property and public safety, whereas coastal beach erosion threatens the coastal tourism economy. While coastal rivers, seacliffs, and gullies supply the majority of littoral material to California beaches, the relative contributions of these sources are coming into question. These beach-sediment sources must be accurately quantified to formulate proper solutions for coastal zone management. This study evaluated the seacliff and coastal gully beach-sediment contributions to the Oceanside Littoral Cell using airborne LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR). Seacliff and gully beach-sediment contributions were compared with\ coastal river beach-sediment contributions estimated in previous studies. This study took place over a relatively dry period from April 1998 to April 2004. The results indicate that seacliffs provided an estimated 67% of the beach-size sediment to the littoral cell, followed by gullies and rivers at 17% and 16%, respectively, over the period of t e study. The total volumetric seacliff erosion rates were used to back-calculate average annual seacliff face retreat rates for the study period. These rates ranged from 3.1 to 13.2 cm/yr and averaged 8.0 cm/yr for the Oceanside Littoral Cell. Comparison of these results to previous studies suggests that the relative seacliff sediment contributions may be higher than previously thought. Conversely, beach-sediment contributions from gullies were significantly lower compared with previous studies. This is likely because of the episodic nature of gullying and the relatively dry study period. Nevertheless, the results of this study indicate that seacliff sediment contributions are a significant sediment source of beach sand in the Oceanside Littoral Cell, and the relative annual seacliff beach-sand contribution is likely higher than previous studies indicate..


  7. Application of Airborne LIDAR for Seacliff Volumetric Change and Beach-Sediment Budget Contributions. Adam P. Young & Scott A. Ashford.
    Journal of Coastal Research: 2006
    Notes
    Coastal seacliff erosion in California threatens property and public safety whereas coastal beach erosion threatens the coastal tourism economy. While coastal rivers seacliffs and gullies supply the majority of littoral material to California beaches the relative contributions of these sources are coming into question. These beach-sediment sources must be accurately quantified to formulate proper solutions for coastal zone management. This study evaluated the seacliff and coastal gully beach-sediment contributions to the Oceanside Littoral Cell using airborne LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR). Seacliff and gully beach-sediment contributions were compared with coastal river beach-sediment contributions estimated in previous studies. This study took place over a relatively dry period from April 1998 to April 2004. The results indicate that seacliffs provided an estimated 67% of the beach-size sediment to the littoral cell followed by gullies and rivers at 17% and 16% respectively over the period of t e study. The total volumetric seacliff erosion rates were used to back-calculate average annual seacliff face retreat rates for the study period. These rates ranged from 3.1 to 13.2 cm/yr and averaged 8.0 cm/yr for the Oceanside Littoral Cell. Comparison of these results to previous studies suggests that the relative seacliff sediment contributions may be higher than previously thought. Conversely beach-sediment contributions from gullies were significantly lower compared with previous studies. This is likely because of the episodic nature of gullying and the relatively dry study period. Nevertheless the results of this study indicate that seacliff sediment contributions are a significant sediment source of beach sand in the Oceanside Littoral Cell and the relative annual seacliff beach-sand contribution is likely higher than previous studies indicate.


  8. Assessing Impacts of Rangeland Management and Reforestation of Rangelands on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Pilot Study for Shasta County. William Salas et al .
    : 2006
    http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2006-108
    Notes
    This study utilizes spatially explicit GIS data on soils, climate, potential forest type, and current rangeland types and forest/rangeland management combined with two soil biogeochemical process models: Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) and Forest-DNDC.


  9. Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals for Forest and Rangelands in Shasta County, California. Timothy Pearson, Sandra Brown, Silvia Petrova, Nick Martin, Aaron Dushku, John Kadyszewski.
    Winrock International : 2006
    http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/project_reports/CEC-500-2006-070.html#
    Notes
    The purpose of this report is to examine the carbon emissions and sequestration from forests and rangelands in Shasta County between 1994 and 1999. This report updates earlier work for the whole state of California (Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Forest, Range, and Agricultural Lands In California), with a focus on adding more detail for one county. Area of change was examined through the satellite data of the California Land Cover Mapping and Monitoring Program (LCMMP); correlated carbon stocks were derived from new field measurements taken in Shasta County. Approximately 26 square kilometers (km2)/year of forests and rangelands showed a decrease in canopy cover caused by fire, harvesting, or development. This was equivalent to an estimated emission of 0.43 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCO2e)/yr from forests and 0.026 MMTCO2e/yr from rangelands. Emissions were exceeded by the estimated removals of 4.36 MMTCO2e/yr from the regrowth of forests and 0.43 MMTCO2e/yr from recovery of rangelands. Harvest was the dominant cause of emissions from forests while development was the most significant cause on rangelands. Fire is a less significant cause during the study period, but evidence suggests that this was a period of unusually low fire incidence, and over a longer time period (11 years) fire was the major cause of emissions.


  10. Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Forest, Range, and Agricultural Lands In California. Sandra Brown et al.
    : 2006
    http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2006-070
    Notes
    The purpose of this report is to examine the carbon emissions and sequestration from forests and rangelands in Shasta County between 1994 and 1999.


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