Publications Published in 2009

1. A Multi-County Analysis Identifying the Vulnerable Populations for Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperature in California. Rupa Basu, Bart Ostro.
   PIER: 2009
   http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2009-035-F
   Notes
   This study examined ambient temperature associated mortality and it's relationship to age, race/ethnicity, gender, and education level to identify subgroups vulnerable to high ambient temperature.
   
   
   
2. Ana Lopez,From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England Fai Fung, Mark New, Glenn Watts, Alan Weston,Robert L. Wilby. Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Mark New, Glenn Watts, Alan Weston,Robert L. Wilby.
   Water Resources Research: 2009
   DOI: 10.1029/2008WR007499
   Notes
   The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Because of the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision making. This paper evaluates the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. We deliberately select water resource models that are already used by water supply companies and regulators on the assumption that uptake of information from large ensembles of climate models will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools and methods. We illustrate the methods with a case study on the Wimbleball water resource zone in the southwest of England. This zone is sufficiently simple to demonstrate the utility of the approach but with enough complexity to allow a variety of different decisions to be made. Our research shows that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, compared to the use of singlemodel scenarios. Furthermore, with careful presentation, decision makers will find the results from large ensembles of models more accessible and be able to more easily compare the merits of different management options and the timing of different adaptation. The overhead in additional time and expertise for carrying out the impacts analysis will be justified by the increased quality of the decision-making process. We remark that even though we have focused our study on a water resou ce system in the United Kingdom, our conclusions about the added value of climate model ensembles in guiding adaptation decisions can be generalized to other sectors and geographical regions.
   
   
   
3. An Analysis of Simulated California Climate Using Multiple Dynamical and Statistical Techniques. Norm Miller, Lisa Sloan, Kanamitsu, and Phil Duffy.
   PIER: 2009
   http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2009-017-F
   Notes
   Enhances dynamic regional climate models and compares them with observation to discover any biases before these models are used to develop probabilistic climate projections for CA
   
   
   
4. A New Two-Dimensional Physical Basis for the Complementary Relation between Terrestrial and Pan Evaporation. J. CORY PETTIJOHN, GUIDO D. SALVUCCI.
   2009
   DOI: 10.1175/2008JHM1026.1
   Notes
   Archived global measurements of water loss from evaporation pans constitute an important indirect measure of evaporative flux. Historical data from evaporation pans shows a decreasing trend over the last half century, but the relationship between pan evaporation and moisture-limited terrestrial evaporation is complex, leading to ambiguities in the interpretation of these data. Under energy-limited conditions, pan evaporation Epan and moisture-limited terrestrial evaporation E increase or decrease together, whereas in moisture-limited conditions these fluxes form a complementary relation (CR) in which increases in one rate accompany decreases in the other rate. This has led to debate about the meaning of the observed trends in the context of changing climate. Here a two-dimensional numerical model of a wet pan in a drying landscape is used to demonstrate that, over a wide range of realistic atmospheric and surface conditions, the influence that changes in E have on Epan 1) are complementary and linear, 2) do n t depend upon surface wind speed, and 3) are strikingly asymmetrical, in that a unit decrease in E causes approximately a fivefold increase in Epan, as found in a recent analysis by Kahler and Brutsaert of daily evaporation from U.S. grasslands. Previous attempts to explain the CR have been based on one-dimensional diffusion and energy balance arguments, leading to analytic solutions based on Penman-type bulk difference equations. However, without acknowledging the spatially complex humidity and temperature fields around the pan and, specifically, how these fields change as the contrast between the wet pan and the drying land surface increases, such integrated bulk difference equations are a priori incomplete (they ignore important divergence terms), and thus these explanations must be considered physically incomplete. Results of this study improve the theoretical foundation of the CR, thus increasing the reliability with which it can be applied to estimate water balance and to understand the pan evaporation record of climate change.
   
   
   
5. An idealized assessment of the economics of air capture of carbon dioxide in mitigation policy. Roger A. Pielke Jr..
   Environmental Science & Policy: 2009
   Notes
   This paper discusses the technology of direct capture of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere called air capture. It develops a simple arithmetic description of the magnitude of the challenge of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide as a cumulative allocation over the 21st century. This approach, consistent with and based on the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), sets the stage for an analysis of the average costs of air capture over the 21st century under the assumption that technologies available today are used to fully offset net human emissions of carbon dioxide. The simple assessment finds that even at a relatively high cost per ton of carbon, the costs of air capture are directly comparable to the costs of stabilization using other means as presented by recent reports of the IPCC and the Stern Review Report.
   
   
   
6. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the past five glacial cycles. E. J. Rohling, K. Grant, M. Bolshaw, A. P. Roberts, M. Siddall, Ch. Hemleben, M. Kucera.
   Nature Geoscience: 2009
   DOI: 10.1038/NGEO557
   Notes
   Ice cores from Antarctica record temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide variations over the past six glacial cycles1,2. Yet concomitant records of sea-level fluctuations—needed to reveal rates and magnitudes of ice-volume change that provide context to projections for the future3–9—remain elusive. Reconstructions indicate fast rates of sea-level rise up to 5 cm yr
   
   
   
7. A. P. Khain, L. R. Leung, B. Lynn, S. GhanEffects of aerosols on the dynamics and microphysics of squall lines simulated by spectral bin and bulk parameterization schemes. A. P. Khain, L. R. Leung, B. Lynn, S. Ghan.
   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS: 2009
   DOI: 10.1029/2009JD011902
   Notes
   A new spectral bin microphysical scheme (SBM) was implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting model referred to as Fast-SBM, which uses a smaller number of size distribution functions than the original version of the scheme referred to as Exact-SBM. It was shown that both schemes produced similar dynamical and microphysical structure of a squall line simulated. An excellent agreement in the simulated precipitation amounts between the schemes was found within a range of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations from 100 to 3000 cm 3. The Fast-SBM requires about 40% of the computing power of the Exact-SBM, allowing it to be used for ‘‘real-time’’ simulations over limited domains. The results obtained using the SBM simulations have been compared with those using a modified version of the Thompson bulk parameterization scheme. The main extension of the bulk scheme was the implementation of the process of drop nucleation, so that drop concentration is no longer prescribed a priori but rather calculated u ing the prescribed aerosol concentration. This scheme is referred to as the Drop scheme. A large set of sensitivity studies have been performed, in which microphysical parameters and precipitation, droplet nucleation above cloud base, etc., have been compared with those obtained from SBM. The SBM scheme produces more realistic dynamical and microphysical structure of the squall line. The Drop scheme did relatively little to change the cloud structures simulated by the bulk scheme. Unlike the SBM simulations that show different precipitation sensitivities to aerosol concentrations in relatively dry and humid environments, the Drop scheme indicates monotonic decrease in precipitation with increasing aerosol concentrations.
   
   
   
8. Application of structures decision making to an assessment of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for sustainable forest management. Ogden, Aynslie E.; Innes, John L..
   Ecology & Society: 2009
   Notes
   A logical starting point for climate change adaptation in the forest sector is to proactively identify management practices and policies that have a higher likelihood of achieving management objectives across a wide range of potential climate futures. This should be followed by implementation of these options and monitoring their success in achieving management objectives within an adaptive management context. Here, we implement an approach to identify locally appropriate adaptation options by tapping into the experiential knowledge base of local forest practitioners while at the same time, building capacity within this community to implement the results. We engaged 30 forest practitioners who are involved with the implementation of a regional forest management plan in identifying climate change vulnerabilities and evaluating alternative adaptation options. A structured decision-making approach was used to frame the assessment. Practitioners identified 24 adaptation options that they considered important to i lement in order to achieve the regional goals and objectives of sustainable forest management in light of climate change.
   
   
   
9. A review of forestry mitigation and adaptation strategies in the Northeast U.S.. Alexander M. Evans, Robert Perschel.
   Climate Change: 2009
   Notes
   The forests of the Northeast U.S. will be significantly affected by climate change, but they also play a role in mitigating climate change by sequestering CO2. Forest management decisions can increase forests’ resilience and ability to adapt to altered precipitation and temperature patterns. At the same time, management strategies that increase carbon storage will help reduce climate disruptions. Because of climate change, foresters on managed lands should take into account changes in species composition, more frequent disturbances, potential changes in growth rates, and distorted insect and disease dynamics. Silvicultural prescriptions should emphasize low impact logging techniques, the perpetuation of structural complexity, legacy trees, extended rotations, and uneven aged management systems where appropriate. In order to maintain resilience as well as to store carbon, forests should be protected from land use conversion.
   
   
   
10. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change. Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom.
    Water Resources Research: 2009
    DOI: 10.1029/2008WR006941
    Notes
    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California’s Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply o rations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.