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Browse publications gathered by the California Energy Commission that focus on climate change issues relevant to the State of California. Find both PIER research papers as well as relevant articles published in peer reviewed journals.

Publications Published in 2013

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  1. A Changing Framework for Urban Water Systems. Hering, Janet G.; Waite, T. David; Luthy, Richard G.; Drewes, Jorg E. & Sedlak, David L..
    Environmental Science & Technology: 2013
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es4007096
    DOI: 10.1021/es4007096
    Notes
    Urban water infrastructure and the institutions responsible for its management have gradually evolved over the past two centuries. Today, they are under increasing stress as water scarcity and a growing recognition of the importance of factors other than the cost of service provision are forcing a reexamination of long-held ideas. Research and development that supports new technological approaches and more effective management strategies are needed to ensure that the emerging framework for urban water systems will meet future societal needs.


  2. A Lifecycle Model to Evaluate Carbon Sequestration Potential and Greenhouse Gas Dynamics of Managed Grasslands. .
    Ecosystems: 2013
    DOI: 10.1007/s10021-013-9660-5
    Notes
    <p><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">Soil amendments can increase net primary productivity (NPP) and soil carbon (C) sequestration in grasslands, but the net greenhouse gas fluxes of amendments such as manure, compost, and inorganic fertilizers remain unclear. To evaluate opportunities for climate change mitigation through soil amendment applications, we designed a field-scale model that quantifies greenhouse gas emissions (CO</span><sub class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-bottom; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">2</sub><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">, CH</span><sub class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-bottom; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">4</sub><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">, and N</span><sub class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-bottom; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">2</sub><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">O) from the production, application, and ecosystem response of soil amendments. Using this model, we developed a set of case studies for grazed annual grasslands in California. Sensitivity tests were performed to explore the impacts of model variables and management options. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to provide estimates of the potential error associated with variables where literature data were sparse or spanned wide ranges. In the base case scenario, application of manure slurries led to net emissions of 14&nbsp;Mg CO</span><sub class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-bottom; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">2</sub><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">e&nbsp;ha</span><sup class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-top; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">&minus;1</sup><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;"><span class="Apple">&nbsp;</span>over a 3-year period. Inorganic N fertilizer resulted in lower greenhouse gas emissions than the manure (3&nbsp;Mg CO</span><sub class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-bottom; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">2</sub><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">e&nbsp;ha</span><sup class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-top; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">&minus;1</sup><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">), assuming equal rates of N addition and NPP response. In contrast, composted manure and plant waste led to large offsets that exceeded emissions, saving 23&nbsp;Mg CO</span><sub class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-bottom; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">2</sub><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">e&nbsp;ha</span><sup class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-top; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">&minus;1</sup><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;"><span class="Apple">&nbsp;</span>over 3&nbsp;years. The diversion of both feedstock materials from traditional high-emission waste management practices was the largest source of the offsets; secondary benefits were also achieved, including increased plant productivity, soil C sequestration, and reduced need for commercial feeds. The greenhouse gas saving rates suggest that compost amendments could result in significant offsets to greenhouse gas emissions, amounting to over 28&nbsp;MMg&nbsp;CO</span><sub class="a" style="line-height: 1; text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant: normal; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; outline-style: none; outline-color: invert; outline-width: 0px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; vertical-align: text-bottom; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">2</sub><span style="text-transform: none; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 13px/20px 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: #333333; word-spacing: 0px;">e when scaled to 5% of California rangelands. We found that the model was highly sensitive to manure and landfill management factors and less dependent on C sequestration, NPP, and soil greenhouse gas effluxes. The Monte Carlo analyses indicated that compost application to grasslands is likely to lead to net greenhouse gas offsets across a broad range of potential environmental and management conditions. We conclude that applications of composted organic matter to grasslands can contribute to climate change mitigation while sustaining productive lands and reducing waste loads.</span></p>


  3. An estimation of annual nitrous oxide emissions and soil quality following the amendment of high temperature walnut shell biochar and compost to a small scale vegetable crop rotation. Emma C. Suddick, Johan Six.
    Science of the Total Environment: 2013
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.094
    Notes
    <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>Agricultural soils are responsible for emitting large quantities of nitrous oxide (N</p> </span></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;">fi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;">fi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;">fi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">cant differences in yield between treatments. Biochar amended soils had signi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;">fi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">O </span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;">fl</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">uxes were not signi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+fb; font-size: xx-small;">fi</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">O</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+20; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+20; font-size: xx-small;">&ndash;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">N ha</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+22; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+22; font-size: xx-small;">&minus;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">1 </span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">yr</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+22; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+22; font-size: xx-small;">&minus;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">1</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">O</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+20; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+20; font-size: xx-small;">&ndash;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">N ha</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+22; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+22; font-size: xx-small;">&minus;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">1 </span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">day</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+22; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9+22; font-size: xx-small;">&minus;</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">1</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">O.</span></p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">, were observed following the incorporation of the winter cover crop. </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> <p>In conclusion, HTWS biochar application to soils had a pronounced effect on the retention of exchangeable cations</p> <p>such as K and Ca compared to un-amended soils and composted soils, which in turn could reduce leaching of these</p> <p>plant availablecations andcould thus improve soilswithpoor nutrient retention. However,HTWSbiochar additions</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>to soil had neither a positive or negative effect on crop yield nor cumulative annual emissions of N</p> </span></p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">O occurred upon the application of N fertilizers and the greatest mean emissions, ranging<span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>from 67.04 to 151.41 g N</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">.<span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>Distinct peaks of N</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">cantly<span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>different between the four treatments with emissions ranging from0.91 to 1.12 kg N</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">cant increases in %<span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>total carbon (C) and the retention of potassium (K) and calcium (Ca). Annual cumulative N</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">ve crops (lettuce, winter cover crop, lettuce, bell pepper and Swiss chard) were determined; there<span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>were no signi</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">eld campaign with four treatments (control (CONT), biochar (B), compost (COM), and </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> <p>biochar+compost (B+C)) was conducted in a small scale vegetable rotation system in Northern California. Crop</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>yields from</p> </span></p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">O emissions following the incorporation of a high temperature (900 &deg;C) walnut shell (HTWS) biochar<span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>into soil, a one year</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">O emissions. To estimate crop yields, soil quality parameters<span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>and N</p> </span></span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> </p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;">O). The controlled incomplete </span> <p>&nbsp;</p> </p> <p>thermal decomposition of agricultural wastes to produce biochar, once amended to soils, have been hypothesized</p> <p><span style="font-family: AdvTT5235d5a9; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>to increase crop yield, improve soil quality and reduce N</p> </span></p>


  4. Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the. Scot M. Miller, Steven C. Wofsy, Anna M. Michalak, Eric A. Kort, Arlyn E. Andrews, Sebastien C. Biraud, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Janusz Eluszkiewicz, Marc L. Fischer, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ben R. Milleri, John B. Miller, Stephen A. Montzka, Thomas Nehrkorn, and Colm Sweeney.
    : 2013
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1314392110

  5. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties. Perrette, M.; Landerer, F.; Riva, R.; Frieler, K. & Meinshausen, M..
    Earth Syst. Dynam.: 2013
    http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/4/11/2013/
    Notes
    Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011). Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6) with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10-20 %). Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.


  6. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment. .
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres: 2013
    DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50171

  7. Climate Change Adaptations for California’s San Francisco Bay Area Water Supplies. William S. Sicke, Jay R. Lund and Josué Medellín-Azuara.
    1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, USA. British Journal of Environment & Climate Change: 2013
    Notes
    <p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"> <p>The impact of climate changes on both sea level and the temporal and spatial distribution</p> <p>of runoff will affect water supply reliability and operations in California. To meet future</p> <p>urban water demands in the San Francisco Bay Area, local water managers can adapt by</p> <p>changing water supply portfolios and operations. An engineering economic model,</p> <p>CALVIN, which optimizes water supply operations and allocations, was used to explore</p> <p>the effects on water supply of a severely warmer drier climate and substantial sea level</p> <p>rise, and to identify economically promising long-term adaptations for San Francisco Bay</p> <p>Area water systems. This modeling suggests that Bay Area urban water demands can be</p> <p>largely met, even under severe forms of climate change, but at a cost. Costs are from</p> <p>purchasing water from agricultural users (with agricultural opportunity costs), expensive</p> <p>water recycling and desalination alternatives, and some increases in water scarcity (costs</p> <p>of water conservation). The modeling also demonstrates the importance of water transfer</p> <p>and intertie infrastructure to facilitate flexible water management among Bay Area water</p> <p>agencies. The intertie capacity developed by Bay Area agencies for emergencies, such</p> <p>as earthquakes, becomes even more valuable for responding to severe changes in</p> <p>climate.</p> </span></span></p>


  8. Climatic Correlates of Tree Mortality in Water- and Energy-Limited Forests. Adrian J. Das, Nathan L. Stephenson, Alan Flint, Tapash Das, Phillip J. van Mantgem.
    PLoS ONE: 2013
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0069917
    Notes
    <p><span style="font-family: AdvP403A40; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: AdvP403A40; font-size: xx-small;"> <p>Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but</p> <p>mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperatureinduced</p> <p>increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term</p> <p>data from California&rsquo;s Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was</p> <p>unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (highelevation)</p> <p>forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second</p> <p>mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using</p> <p>absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality</p> <p>vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in</p> <p>water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.</p> </span></span></p>


  9. Coastal habitats shield people and property from sea-level rise and storms. Arkema, Katie K.; Guannel, Greg; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A.; Guerry, Anne; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Kareiva, Peter; Lacayo, Martin & Silver, Jessica M..
    Nature Climate Change: 2013
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1944
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1944
    Notes
    Extreme weather, sea-level rise and degraded coastal ecosystems are placing people and property at greater risk of damage from coastal hazards. The likelihood and magnitude of losses may be reduced by intact reefs and coastal vegetation1, especially when those habitats fringe vulnerable communities and infrastructure. Using five sea-level-rise scenarios, we calculate a hazard index for every 1 km2 of the United States coastline. We use this index to identify the most vulnerable people and property as indicated by being in the upper quartile of hazard for the nation's coastline. The number of people, poor families, elderly and total value of residential property that are most exposed to hazards can be reduced by half if existing coastal habitats remain fully intact. Coastal habitats defend the greatest number of people and total property value in Florida, New York and California. Our analyses deliver the first national map of risk reduction owing to natural habitats and indicates where conservation and restoration of reefs and vegetation have the greatest potential to protect coastal communities.


  10. Connecting physical watershed characteristics to climate sensitivity for California mountain streams. Stewart, Iris T.
    Climatic Change: 2013
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0567-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0567-5
    Notes
    California mountain streams provide critical water resources for human supplies and aquatic ecosystems, and have been affected by climatic changes to varying degrees, often within close proximity. The objective of this study is to examine stream flow timing changes and their climatic drivers through 2009, identify sub-regional patterns in response and sensitivity, and explore whether the differences in the sensitivity of a stream to climatic changes can be partially explained through the physical characteristics of a watershed. To this end, changes in streamflow timing for each watershed were assessed through several runoff timing measures, and overall sensitivity to historic climatic changes through a composite sensitivity index. Elevation, aspect, slope, geology, and landcover distributions, as well as climate information were assembled for each watershed; and were analyzed in conjunction with the sensitivity index. Results showed that the basins most sensitive to climatic changes are on the western Sierra Nevada slopes, while eastern and southern Sierra Nevada, as well as Klamath mountain watersheds exhibit little or no response to climatic shifts to date. Basin sensitivity was not found to be connected to any individual physical watershed characteristic other than elevation. However, it is suggested that basin-to-basin differences in sensitivity, observed in spite of regional-scale warming and similar watershed elevations, can be explained by differences in elevation ranges and combinations of physical watershed characteristics. Results about stream differences in climate sensitivity could aid in prioritizing stream preservation efforts.


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