Extended Drought Scenarios
California has a highly variable climate and is susceptible to dry spells. Recent research suggests that extended drought occurrence (“mega-drought”) could become more pervasive in future decades. This tool explores data for two 20-year drought scenarios derived from LOCA downscaled meteorological and hydrological simulations: one for the earlier part of the 21st century, and one for the latter part.
- Source: Cal-Adapt. Data: Extended Drought Scenarios, LOCA Downscaled Climate Projections, VIC generated climate variables forced by LOCA (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Gridded Historical Observed Meteorological and Hydrological Data (University of Colorado, Boulder).
Extended Drought Scenarios
Projections for two 20-year drought scenarios derived from LOCA downscaled meteorological and hydrological simulations: one for the earlier part of the 21st century, and one for the latter part. Details are described in Pierce et al., 2018.
LOCA Downscaled Climate Projections for Temperature & Precipitation for HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5
Projected daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation data. These data were statistically downscaled from global climate model from the CMIP5 archive at a 1/16º (approximately 6 km) spatial resolution on a daily timescale using the LOCA technique. Details are described in Pierce et al., 2014.
Climate Variables generated by VIC model forced by LOCA Downscaled Climate Projections for HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5
LOCA downscaled projections of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature are used to drive a land surface/hydrology model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model to provide high-resolution projections for a suite of hydrological parameters. The VIC model was originally developed by Xu Liang at the University of Washington. Details are described in Pierce et al., 2014.
Gridded Historical Observed Meteorological and Hydrological Data
Historical observed daily temperature and precipitation data from approximately 20,000 NOAA Cooperative Observer (COOP) stations form the basis of this gridded dataset from 1950–2013 at a spatial resolution of 1/16º (approximately 6 km). Observation-based meteorological data sets offer insights into changes to the hydro-climatic system by diagnosing spatio-temporal characteristics and providing a historical baseline for future projections. Details are described in Livneh et al., 2015.
In order to create data layers used in this visualization, we calculated annual averages of daily values of Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, Precipitation (LOCA climate variables) and Evapotranspiration, Snow Water Equivalent, Runoff, Baseflow, Tair (VIC climate variables) for each calendar year and each water year. This process was done for each of the 32 LOCA downscaled climate models for the RCP 8.5 scenario.
An envelope of modeled variability for each climate variable were generated by selecting the highest and lowest values from annual averages of all the 32 LOCA downscaled climate models.