Annual Area Burned
averaged over
Population Growth Scenario:
Modeled Data (1960–2099)
1 Hectares 100+

Annual Average of Area Burned

Grid Cell near Sacramento, CA, USA

Emissions peak around 2040, then decline (RCP 4.5). Central Population Growth Projections.

Climate Models
  • This chart shows modeled annual averages of area burned for the selected area on map under the RCP 4.5 scenario.
  • Four models have been selected by California’s Climate Action Team Research Working Group as priority models for research contributing to California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. Projected future climate from these four models can be described as producing:
    • A warm/dry simulation (HadGEM2-ES)
    • A cooler/wetter simulation (CNRM-CM5)
    • An average simulation (CanESM2)
    • The model simulation that is most unlike the first three for the best coverage of different possibilities (MIROC5)
  • Use year sliders to get means for different time periods. The projected mean is calculated for all visible models in the chart. Use slider below the chart to zoom and pan within the chart.

Data Sources

scripps logo

Wildfire Simulations for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment

University of California, Merced

Wildfire scenario projections produced by Dr. LeRoy Westerling at the University of California Merced, using a statistical model based on historical data of climate, vegetation, population density, and fire history coupled with regionally downscaled LOCA climate projections. Details are described in Westerling, 2018.