Cal-Adapt

Annual Area Burned

averaged over

Model:

Scenario:

Population Growth Scenario:

1960–1969

Modeled Data (1960–2099)

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Annual Average of Area Burned

Grid Cell near Sacramento, CA, USA

Emissions peak around 2040, then decline (RCP 4.5). Central Population Growth Projections.

Scenarios

Population Scenario

Quick Stats

Annual Mean Hectares for

Change Location

Climate Models

Notes

This chart shows modeled annual averages of area burned for the selected area on map under the RCP 4.5 scenario.
^* These models have been selected by California state agencies as priority models for research contributing to California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment.
Use year sliders to get means for different time periods. The projected mean is calculated for all visible models in the chart. Use slider below the chart to zoom and pan within the chart.

About

Wildfire is a serious hazard in California. Several studies have indicating that the risk of wildfire will increase with climate change. This tool explores wildfire scenario projections done by Dr. LeRoy Westerling at the University of California Merced, using a statistical model based on historical data of climate, vegetation, population density, and fire history coupled with regionally downscaled LOCA climate projections.

The fire modeling ran simulations on following five variables on a monthly time step:

Large fire presence/absence
Number of fires given presence
Area burned in a grid cell given a fire
High severity burned area given a fire
Emissions

Details are described in Westerling et al., forthcoming [4^th Assessment report or white paper].

Data Sources

Wildfire Scenario Projections in California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment

Dr. LeRoy Westerling - University of California, Merced

Wildfire scenario projections were done by Dr. LeRoy Westerling at the University of California Merced, based on statistical modeling from historical data of climate, vegetation, population density, and fire history. The fire modeling ran simulations on five variables on a monthly time step - Large fire presence/absence, Number of fires given presence, Area burned in a grid cell given a fire, High severity burned area given a fire and Emissions. The modeling used the LOCA climate projections as inputs and therefore is considered as secondary scenarios in the Fourth Assessment. Details are described in Westerling et al., forthcoming [4^th Assessment report or white paper].