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About the Tool

The frequency, severity and impacts of wildfire are sensitive to climate change as well as many other factors, including development patterns, temperature increases, wind patterns, precipitation change and pest infestations. Therefore, it is more difficult to project exactly where and how fires will burn. Instead, climate models estimate increased risk to wildfires.

The Annual or Monthly Average Area Burned can help inform at a high level if wildfire activity is likely to increase. However, this information is not complete - many regions across the state have no projections (such as regions outside combined fire state and federal protection responsibility areas), and more detailed analyses and projections are needed for local decision-making.

These projections are most robust for the Sierra Nevada given model inputs. However, as we have seen in recent years, much of California can expect an increased risk of wildfire, with a wildfire season that starts earlier, runs longer, and features more extreme fire events.

Data Sources

The following list of datasets were used to create this tool. Download data visualized in the charts by clicking the Download Chart button. For more download options follow the links below.


  • The Adaptation Clearinghouse is the State of California's consolidated searchable database of resources for local, regional and statewide climate adaptation planning and decision-making.

  • California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment advances actionable science that serves the growing needs of state and local-level decision-makers from a variety of sectors.

Related Cal-Adapt Tools


  • An introduction to climate data, models, and projections.

  • Frequently asked questions about Cal-Adapt's tools and data.